--very clearly supported by quite detailed simulations. I would say that we share the concern that there are cohorts of Canadians, or groups of Canadians, who run the risk of being overextended in their personal finances.
We've used every opportunity, and I'll use this one as well, to encourage people when they consider taking on additional debt to look at that obligation over the fullness of time, or in other words, over the long term, and to think about it in more normal circumstances. We still are in quite extraordinary circumstances with respect to borrowing.
That brings me to your question, which is a very welcome and important one. To be absolutely clear, a large portion of this debt that was recently run up--not all of it, but a large portion of it--has been related to the housing market. It was not purely for housing purchases, but was related to the housing markets in two ways: first, conventional mortgages, and second, personal lines of credit that have been secured against houses, the so-called home equity loans. In fact, the bulk of private consumer debt has been home equity debt in recent years.
We see a marked weakening in housing activity over the course of our projection, starting from the second quarter of this year, and over the balance of the year. In fact, you will note in the detailed breakdown on page 20 of the report where we consider GDP growth by component that housing activity will actually subtract from growth in 2011. That's not the same as talking about specific prices, but in terms of the level of this activity, we see it coming down, and we do expect to see a moderation in debt.
That said, credit growth in this country has continued to be quite strong. In those situations, there is a risk that momentum maintains itself for longer than expected. We're expecting to see a coming off in the rate of credit growth. If it does not and persists for longer, then there is a risk of upside momentum. Now, there is a variety of factors--I won't use up all of your time, but I'm sure we will get into it--in regard to why we expect to see this deceleration.
One final point is that something that does characterize our forecast for this year is the front-loaded nature of the recovery, with a much faster first quarter, second quarter, and then a gradual slowing.