Okay. Got it.
And Tiff Macklem, yes. We don't anticipate any immediate impact of the arrival of Mr. Macklem.
But yes, of course, we've taken that into account. One of the things we've tried to highlight in the report is that we believe there has been a pulling forward of some economic activity, particularly in the housing sector and in some other consumption, for several reasons: one was the expiration of the home renovation tax credit and associated expenditure around that; second, anticipation of changes in interest rates; and third, the HST, on new home purchases but on other purchases as well.
So we anticipate that there will be a falling off in some of that activity in the second quarter, but most notably in the third. That is in our forecast. The question is, will it be more or less than we anticipated? We will see.
I would like to reiterate what I said at the start, though, that nothing is preordained. What we have done is taken away extraordinary guidance, exceptional guidance, unconventional guidance, about the path of interest rates, which was necessary at that time. That time is passing. We've taken it away. We are not going to provide guidance about the path of interest rates.
The extent and timing of any additional withdrawal of monetary stimulus will be a function of economic activity and the outlook for inflation in Canada. So those who are trying to divine what we might do should spend their time not parsing words, but thinking about the level of economic activity, the outlook for inflation in this economy, and where rates would appropriately be.