This may not have been mentioned, but I believe my colleagues are of the view that the probability of another recession in the United States is between 20% and 40%; we estimate the odds at 1 in 3. I am not sure, I think it is roughly between 20% and 40%—regardless, it is a pretty significant number.
If there is another U.S. recession, and given current price levels, we could be approaching a period of dramatic disinflation, or even deflation, so negative price growth. But I do not think it will be the same as in Japan.
In my opinion, other government intervention measures will be possible, and since we are talking about an alternative scenario, other stimulus programs will follow. In fact, they are talking about one such program for the Federal Reserve System. There is talk of once again easing monetary restrictions on a large scale to kick-start the economy or stop the slowdown.
I would not be as negative as you and say that we are going to relapse into deflation, that it is going to happen. I think that other major measures will be taken, but the risk will still be there.