Hello, ladies and gentlemen. My name is James Knight and I am president of the Association of Canadian Community Colleges. With me today is Paul Brennan, our vice-president of International Partnerships.
I commend the committee on its broad-based consultation with Canadians on priorities for 2011-12. Your work is important and onerous, and we're very proud to be here. For the college sector, your report in 2010-11 was particularly helpful, and we thank you for that.
This year our orientation is towards the long term. Most of you remember David Foot's groundbreaking book, Boom, Bust & Echo. Well, I'm here to tell you that the bust has arrived. The first baby boomer will celebrate his 65th birthday in 2011, and millions more will follow in quick succession. The high end of our labour force, the most skilled and the most experienced, will retire in vast numbers. As we age, the percentage of Canadians who do not participate in the labour force will rise from 44% to 61% in less than a generation.
HRSDC and Statistics Canada predict a labour shortage of 1.5 million within a decade. These numbers are grim enough, but another consideration makes things even more challenging. Owing to the penetration of technology into everything we do, employers will require persons with a much higher skill level. Not long ago someone could have a good career with no more than a high school diploma. The new standard will be a post-secondary credential. Already, 70% of employment opportunities require PSE, post-secondary education. Within a generation, the figure will be 80%. Currently, only 60% of Canadians between the ages of 25 and 64 meet this standard. This is one reason why we already experience high unemployment and large numbers of job vacancies at the same time. Unless something significant changes soon, by 2016, the 550,000 Canadians without a post-secondary credential will not qualify for positions that will be available. This is the syndrome of people without jobs and jobs without people.
Meeting these challenges will require a whole basket of strategies. Immigration is important but only a small part of the answer. Making post-secondary education more efficient is another opportunity. Encouraging people to work longer is a third opportunity. But by far the most important strategy is to increase the labour participation rates among those who generally fare poorly in the employment market: aboriginals, poor immigrants, the disabled, multi-generation welfare dependants, and disengaged youth, particularly young men.
If we fail to attract these marginalized populations, post-secondary enrolment in Canada will plateau and then begin to decline in 2016. However, if we can bring only 25% of these groups into education, enrolment will increase for a generation and beyond.
Canadian colleges excel at providing accessible, cost-effective post-secondary education and lifelong learning for people of all ages. Colleges have a mandate and a unique ability to reach out to and nurture the marginalized through to graduation and employment.
Meeting these demographic and skills challenges will require a huge national enterprise. We urge the Government of Canada to launch a dialogue with provincial and territorial governments, educational institutions, the private sector, and civil society now. Failure to act will result in a declining standard of living and threaten our most valued national institutions, and I would put health care at the top of the list.
In the short term, we recommend three specific, affordable actions. We must find mechanisms to increase the educational success of our fastest-growing demographic, our aboriginal populations. Shamefully, the number of aboriginal post-secondary graduates is falling. We must act now to recover lost market share for our education exports; that is, bringing foreign post-secondary students into Canada. Higher tuition fees are a great resource for all post-secondary institutions, but our marketing efforts abroad pale in comparison with those of our competitors. Many of these students are now able to remain in Canada following graduation.
On the reciprocal side, it is curious that the country that is the most trade-dependent in the world is the weakest in terms of sending students abroad for cultural and language experiences. Employers place a very high premium on graduates with offshore experience.
Finally, we must continue to invest in college-private sector partnerships, innovation, applied research, and commercialization. These arrangements increase productivity and employment in the SME sector, where most new jobs are created.
Thank you, Chair.