We don't do a formal forecast of China, but we look at the consensus forecasts. The view of other forecasters around the world is that China will still be able to grow by about 8% this year, plus or minus maybe a half a percentage point. It's absolutely true that manufacturing has pulled back in the last few quarters by virtue of the weakened demand globally.
China's biggest challenge right now is shifting from almost an over-reliance upon external sources demand--meaning export--to learning how to grow a stronger consumption base within the country. There are risk factors everyplace. You could look at the housing bubbles in Shanghai, for example. You could look at the fact that the Chinese have an underdeveloped financial system and are still developing instruments. But for the most part, most forecasters believe that China will still be able to sustain growth, not in the double digits any longer but at something like 8%. For me, that means chronically strong pressure on commodity prices, because we have a whole new source of global demand now, added through China.
Risky? Absolutely. China is going to have to go through a transformation internally, but we still build it into our thinking as a positive force on commodity prices.