Mr. Page and everyone else from the office, I want to thank you for coming here again.
I want to tell you I spent some time last night and early this morning reading this. I think I was working on this until one o'clock this afternoon. I want to talk to you a little about your forecasting and the accuracy of your forecasting.
I don't want to be critical--you're trying to do your job--but when I read this I find there's an air of pessimism. It's that I want to talk to you about. When we look at the IMF, for instance, and the Bank of Canada, there are 14 leading private sector economists who somewhat disagree with your economic outlook on what's presented in 2012. Then when I look at the long-range forecast, that trend continues.
In 2012 you were predicting 1.9% compared to the 2.1% by the IMF and the private sector economists and 2.4% by the Bank of Canada. For 2013 the difference is even more stark, with your office predicting the real GDP growth of only 1.6% and the IMF projecting 2.2% and those same private sector economists and the bank again coming in at 2.4%.
If your numbers are correct, can you explain to this committee how the Bank of Canada and the International Monetary Fund and Canada's leading private sector economists have erred in their predictions? Why are these leading respected organizations overly optimistic in their outlook?