Thank you, as it is a very important question. Let me say three things, if I may, about the debt ceiling agreement.
The first is that it should be recognized that the process through which this agreement was arrived at contributed to the level of uncertainty in global financial markets, compounding a concern about policy processes in major economies in the U.S. and in Europe, although for different reasons in Europe, obviously. That process contributed to some of the uncertainty and volatility in financial markets.
The second thing, to go straight to your question, is the actual direct impact of the debt ceiling agreement. I'm going to add a caveat with a subpoint, but at first blush the incremental impact of the debt ceiling agreement on our forecast for the United States will be in the order of 0.2 percentage points off GDP growth next year and something similar in 2013. That's not the sum total of fiscal drag in the United States; as I said in my opening remarks, fiscal drag will be considerable on current plans--on all the other fiscal plans in place going forward from this point-- but there is an incremental impact, and the devil is in the details here because, as you know, the specific spending reductions have not been decided. The bipartisan committee will make some of these decisions or recommendations, and the nature of those decisions could change that number. It could elevate that number and it's unlikely to reduce the number, so as that process unfolds, it will be very important that we monitor exactly what is decided.
The third point I would make on U.S. fiscal policy is that there is a countervailing aspect to it that will be part of this negotiation, that being whether some of the stimulus measures currently in place roll off in the United States. The most prominent example is the payroll tax cut, which is due to expire. The President indicated recently his desire to extend it. That would have a positive effect on U.S. output, but that's a decision for the American government to take.