The American situation is relatively straightforward. The calculation of the shock to the U.S. economy is 4% to 5% of real GDP. That's the American assessment of what will happen if they let the fiscal cliff happen without any adjustment. I have more faith in self-interest taking hold at some point and people realizing that this would be very unwise. It would hurt a lot of people in the United States. It would also hurt us and we would go into a recession not long after because still 75% of our trade is with the United States and there would be sharply reduced demand of course.
With respect to Europe, we've been pressing Europe for a long time, the eurozone countries, and sometimes we've created a chill in the room by not going along with everybody. I think it's having some effect. For the first time the leaders of the eurozone met following the IMF and World Bank meetings in Tokyo three and half weeks ago and actually set a deadline for setting up the legislation for the supervisory body for their banking system in Europe. It is to be done by the end of this year. Then the leaders of the eurozone instructed their finance ministers to get the implementation done. Their finance ministers are meeting on, I believe, November 12. There are some steps happening with some deadlines in the eurozone.