We don't yet have reason to believe that the downward trend in the BU ratio is a result of the changes to suitable employment and reasonable and customary efforts to obtain suitable employment, for a number of reasons. First, the decline in the BU ratio preceded January 6, 2013, when the changes came into place. Second, we put the government's estimate of the impact into our projections.
The government estimated that the effect would be small, at about 8,000 claimants, which is 1.5% of claimants overall. This seems to be a reasonable estimate. They also estimated that the effects would be temporary until these 8,000 claimants had demonstrated the new requirements.
So instead, we believe that it's mostly attributable to the longer durations of unemployment following the recession, and we expect that trend to kind of reverse and go back to a long-term trend.