Finance Committee on April 29th, 2014

[Mostafa Askari]

To the level in the 1980s. I'm not saying they're catching up to anybody else. I'm saying there was a significant drop in the median income, and then we saw a gradual increase since the mid-1990s to the level where we are right now. It's true that recently there has been growth in median income, but when you compare historically to where we were in the early 1980s, I don't think we have reached that level. But that's just a casual comment.

[Mark Adler, Conservative, York Centre, ON]

In all fairness, we should be comparing ourselves to existing data that's out there right now, in terms of where other median middle-class incomes are in other countries. That would be the fair assessment at this point.

[Mostafa Askari]

Compared to others, yes, but not compared to—

[Mark Adler, Conservative, York Centre, ON]

Yes. We're doing really well, then, right? That would indicate that our policies have been very successful, because they have been increasing, as you indicated, since the early 2000s. Is that not correct?

[Mostafa Askari]

Based on that study, yes, it seems that we are above the Americans, but whether that's a good criterion or not, I don't know.

[Mark Adler, Conservative, York Centre, ON]

I'm not asking this as a criterion, but it would speak to the fact that something seems to be working right in what we're doing.

I'll share my time with Mr. Van Kesteren, in the spirit of fairness.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Thank you.

Thank you all for coming.

Mr. Askari, when you talk about the labour shortage statistics, what organizations did you contact to verify those numbers? I guess I can ask that question of anybody. Is that your own study or did you consult with other organizations?

[Mostafa Askari]

We look at the data that exists, and there are three sources of data. One is the CFIB, one is the Conference Board, and the other is StatsCan. We use the Conference Board data as the main data source, and then CFIB as a supporting database.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Did they jibe?

[Mostafa Askari]

Very much so, actually.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

If my memory serves me right, when the CFIB came here, one of their biggest issues was labour shortage.

[Mostafa Askari]

That's a puzzle to us, actually, because their data does not really support that conclusion.

Actually, our report was reviewed by the chief economist of CFIB, and they didn't really have any issues with our methodology, our approach, or our conclusions. I'm sort of puzzled in the sense that, as Mr. Saxton suggested, we should look for other data, but there is really no other source of data.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Let me just interject quickly.

When I look at the web page and the creation of your office in 2006 to assist the government, not to prop up the government—I think most members would be firmly against that—but to assist the government in finding their numbers, one of the statements of your original foundation is to gather information from other sources.

What sources do you use outside of the Conference Board? I think one of our colleagues talked about the Fraser Institute. Do you ever contact these folks as well?

[Mostafa Askari]

Sure. We look at every study that is relevant to our work. In fact, our analysts continuously review the literature, the recent literature, and recent studies by other organizations. We have really no bias in terms of whose study is better than the others. We look at the methodology and the—

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Okay. I don't want to be rude, but I have to cut you off because I want to get this point in.

I would think that you're going to have two schools of economists. Sir, I wouldn't dare even to suggest to get in a dialogue with you on the subject of economics. You obviously have a degree in that. But I would disagree with any concept that said that making significant cuts in government is going to cause the sort of predictions that your office has made. I probably wouldn't be the one to argue that. I would look at an institution like the Fraser Institute or something. Would they agree with that kind of a policy that says that the drag on the GDP resulting in a cutback in public workers, for instance, is going to result in a negative gain? Did I understand that right, because this, to me, is not something that I would accept.

[Mostafa Askari]

If somebody actually understands the principles of how the economic system works, and C.D. Howe would be—

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

It works for me. This comes in. That goes out.

[Mostafa Askari]

Well—

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Sometimes they balance—

[The Chair, Conservative, James Rajotte]

Order.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

I know that's tough—

[Mostafa Askari]

In that sense, when government is spending, government consumption is part of the national GDP.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

I've heard that. But does everybody agree with that? I know that if I look at the Austrian school, they would totally reject that.

I recognize that you have a function and I support that. I think that's admirable and I think you need to do your job, but is ideology maybe sometimes getting in the way with some of our methodology, and possibly some of our solutions is what causes a problem?

[Mostafa Askari]

There is no ideology here. This is my training, our training, as economists, and the experience that we have had over 30 years working in this area which leads to our conclusions, and the studies. There is no ideology at all.

[Nathan Cullen, NDP, Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC]

Mr. Chair, on a point of order, I know Mr. Van Kesteren was trying to make a point, but the respect that we extend to our witnesses is important. I think there was a suggestion in the angle that somehow the reports and the effects of the reports are driven more by an ideology than by the numbers. I think that borders across that line of respect. I think the PBO has presented their facts as they are.