I think the sign is correct. As I said, nominal GDP feels the effect, and there is a range of estimates again for nominal, so in the prebudget meeting with the minister we'll have all our latest forecasts out there. For nominal GDP, last year it grew by just under 4.5% and this year we have it just under 2%, so we're looking at a two percentage point hit to nominal GDP, which will translate into roughly a similar magnitude.
The federal government has the fiscal sensitivity tables, as you're well aware, and you can work through the fiscal sensitivity for a 1% drop in nominal GDP. So we're at 2% relative to where we were a short while ago and I think that's probably the way to go about it. Then you can work that through the math and the fiscal numbers.
Our own view is that given the starting point, we have nine months of the data for the fiscal year just ending this March, and it's about $11 billion ahead of what it was for the same period last year, so there is a cushion built in there, plus there is also the adjustment for risk, which is exactly for these sorts of surprises.