Coming from Statistics Canada, I have very few reflexes about forecasting and policy-making.
My general impression.... I produce a leading indicator that has declined 0.2% in the last month. Basically, it's all because of the commodity price component. If you exclude that, it's up 0.3%. I agree with the general idea that the costs are going to be front-loaded from this. We'll have a weak first quarter, and then we'll see the positive impacts on household spending and especially U.S. growth. Overall, I'd be quite optimistic, just because of the U.S. economy. It's been stuck at 1.5% to 2% for years now, and the consensus seems to be that it's finally going to break out above 3%. The employment data in the U.S. has been quite good, so I think that will pull us along.