You are absolutely right; surprises can always happen. Some of us who have been in the forecasting business for a long time learn very early on that you never try to forecast oil prices. It's extremely difficult, for some of the reasons that you mentioned. There are geopolitical impacts and other impacts that make it extremely hard to project. In fact, when we were doing our forecast one option was to keep, as the Bank of Canada does, the current oil prices fixed throughout our projection period, which would be a very simple assumption, and not try to project them.
But then we decided that financial markets have a view of where the oil prices are going, so we said that maybe the simplest and the safest way would be to take what the futures markets have for their oil prices. Certainly, there are bands around that. It could be much higher; it could be much lower. Both sides of that will go. There are upside risks and downside risks to that. If it turns out to be higher than what we are assuming, certainly it will have an impact on the nominal GDP and will have an impact on the bottom line for the government. But if it is lower, it will be the other way around.
So we are taking a very simple approach to the projection of oil prices—essentially what the financial markets have.