Thanks for the question.
On business investment, our outlook over the first three years is a bit stronger than the Bank of Canada's. We have a bigger rebound in business investment growth. At the same time, we also have a more, let's say, negative outlook on the residential sector, so we have a bigger decline in residential investment over that period. Part of that, as the governor mentioned—I caught the last couple of comments—is that investment helps to increase the productive capacity of the economy and boost potential growth, so that's being reflected in our outlook.
The risks that we identified are definitely what we see as the most important upside and downside risks. I'm not sure I can give you a top three and bottom three, but the others that are definitely under consideration relate to U.S. trade policies. Again, this is something that several other forecasters have pointed out, based on the uncertainty around NAFTA, of course. Then on the opposite side of that, coming from the U.S., is U.S. fiscal policy and talks about tax reform and tax reduction, so we see that as a possible upside. The way that we treated that in our forecast is that we just assume that they would be offsetting. That's definitely a judgment call and we're open to that.
There are some others, both global and domestic. On the domestic front, we could see a sharper correction in the residential sector than we currently have. We think that it's considerable, but given some of the recent changes on the mortgage underwriting guidelines and maybe a larger impact of the expected increase in interest rates, that could have a more negative impact on the housing side.
Our export outlook is also, I don't want to say, very optimistic, but we do see bigger pickup in terms of growth in export volumes, at least relative to the Bank of Canada's outlook. Maybe on the downside, if we do see another persistence in competitiveness issues for Canadian exporters, we might not see that rebound.
Those are probably the top two and bottom two.