I've mentioned it, and I'll just reference it again. There has been a plethora of studies in the past 10 or 15 years by very prestigious and authoritative institutions. The World Bank, the IMF, and the OECD have published on this.
First and foremost, the exit of such large numbers from the workforce is going to slow down GDP. That's going to reduce the flow of revenues to federal and provincial governments. This had been modelled. It has been shown by these various forecasting agencies. Finance Canada, I'm told, has studies internally that show this. The impact is going to show up in reduced economic growth and reduced revenues down the road. That's the first problem.
The second problem is that the dependency ratio is collapsing—and I mean collapsing—from the late 1960s, where it was somewhere around seven workers for every dependent or retiree. The dependency ratio is going to go down to 2.4. I guess I have an understanding of basic arithmetic, and to think there's going to be 2.4 young people supporting one of me, is a scary thought. We're living a lot longer, and as we get above that 75 point—and the break point is somewhere between 75 and 80 when health care costs start to absolutely skyrocket—something's going to give. That's why the OECD is using very apocalyptic language in its predictions, so is the IMF.
I've talked to colleagues in the universities, and they say, “Yes, yes, okay, revenues will be down a little bit tighter.” I don't think it's going to be like that. Every forecast I've looked at shows it's going to be far worse than that. There are things we can do to mitigate it, such as trying to keep seniors in their homes and trying to keep them working longer.
Very quickly, I've met Fred Vettese, the chief economist at Morneau Shepell, at several pension conferences. He's a brilliant individual, one of the leading authorities on this. He says our pension policies are incoherent. Private pension plans allow you to retire at 55, the OAS age is 65, and the CPP age is 60 to 70. We could start by standardizing and adopting the CPP model, say, and amend OAS and the tax act for private pension plans. There are things we can do to mitigate this tsunami that's coming.