Just to provide a little bit of context around our baseline estimates, we provide three sensitivity scenarios. One is a shock to real GDP, another to GDP inflation, and lastly, to interest rates. You'll see in appendix F on page 33 that the shock to real GDP has the most detrimental impact on the budget balance. A negative shock to real GDP would have roughly an $3.8-billion impact on the budget balance in the final year, whereas, conversely, a 1% increase in real GDP would have, roughly, a mirror effect, or about a $3.8 billion improvement in the budget balance by year five.
On April 23rd, 2018. See this statement in context.