Clearly always throughout history you see ups and downs in quarterly growth. To do monetary policy well you need to look at the factors that are reflecting underlying momentum, and one of the factors appeared to be contributing to quarter-to-quarter volatility, and that's what you've observed.
Specifically in this instance we see a couple of things. I don't want to go through them all, but there's volatility in the inventories through Q4 and Q1 that will affect that quarterly pattern going into Q2. We've also seen some other factors with respect to autos and auto production that clearly don't look as if they would be sustainable.
I think the third factor is exports. Exports started the year very strongly and if you compare it to what you would expect exports to be, given what we think foreign demand is, and in particular foreign demand from the U.S., it looks as if exports were a little stronger than you would have expected. So we've taken a cautious approach to that outlook and think there will be some give-back in subsequent quarters. Of course that could be overly cautious. We see the volatility in that export data. The last data point we saw wasn't that great, but I think the bottom line is that we try to define the best quarterly pattern, given the underlying factors we're seeing. On the export side we have identified that as a potential upside risk going forward because we've been cautious in our outlook.