Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I would like to thank all the witnesses for meeting with us here and for the work they have done, which is extremely useful.
I would like to start with a few remarks, particularly to respond to Mr. MacKinnon's comments.
I would call the current approach to budgeting policy “Paul Martin 2.0”. This is where we can agree. In fact, this increasingly reminds me of the budgets tabled by that former finance minister.
We are not talking about prudence here, but rather about forecasts that are miles apart from what can be projected. Paul Martin calculated deficit forecasts by overinflating tax expenditures. I am talking about all the tax credits and revenues that the government hands out through tax measures.
In this case, things are being done differently, namely by inflating or lowering the estimates. As you yourself noted, we are talking about a difference of $40 billion per year for the projected level of nominal GDP. We even go up to nearly $50 billion per year in 2016-17. We are then back in the same situation. We are no longer talking about prudence now. This is my personal opinion, but I think we are witnessing a deliberate strategy intended to change people's expectations. An overly large deficit that calls for prudence is announced, but ultimately the result at the end of the year is somewhat better than what was originally announced. People are consequently relieved. In addition, this makes the government look good and eases its conscience.
Not being prudent enough is problematic, but being overly prudent becomes a deliberate political strategy. Since I know what your role is, I will not ask you to comment on these issues. However, since you are still in contact with the Department of Finance, I would like to know where this extremely conservative estimate of nominal GDP comes from.
Moreover, the contingency fund totalled $3 billion in the past. This amount was reduced to $1 billion under the Conservatives. However it has now inflated to $6 billion. Based on your conversations and the information you receive for your analysis, could you tell me where these figures come from?
I had the opportunity to ask the Minister of Finance, Mr. Morneau, some questions, but I never received an answer. It looks like these figures just fell from the sky.