I won't read it because it is a long motion, but this would have been the motion I placed on notice with the committee on finance to research a report on the impact of changes to mortgage rules. These are B-20 mortgage rule changes that were introduced January 1 by the OFSI. It has multiple parts to it.
One of the key ones I want to mention.... I was looking at the calendar the committee had and I noticed there will be openings in June, but also, obviously there's a calendar for the fall. This motion is worded carefully to say that this study would begin after the statutory review of the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act is completed and tabled in the House. I'm very conscious that we first need to finish the study we're currently on. I know there will be pre-budget round tables afterward. I don't want to upstage that. I don't want to replace it.
I'm simply saying for planning purposes at the finance committee, I believe this should be the next one that we undertake. I'm simply moving it so we can start a conversation about it and then see where the conversation goes at the table.
I believe that the B-20 rule changes are having a pretty heavy impact on mortgages and the ability of Canadians to renew their mortgages. There has been talk already. I have a couple of news articles I'm going to refer to on this new stress test, the 2% increase that homeowners, when they're renewing their mortgage, have to comply with.
There are many individuals. There are as many as 50,000 Canadians who may be prevented from buying a house, who before would have been able to do so, according to the CBC. This was an article not too long ago. There are 100,000 Canadians who will fail the stress test who already have a mortgage with their lender. They will not be able to get a renewal of their mortgage with any other lender. They will basically be trapped with the lender they're with currently. I think that's an issue the committee should be seized with and look at whether these rule changes and the way the stress test is working are actually to the benefit of the public and the benefit of Canadians.
A stat I got from the CIBC capital market report is that 47% of all existing mortgages will need to be refinanced in 2018, which is actually up from the 25% to 35% range in a normal year. It has already had an impact, people are seeking shorter mortgages and having to renew them more often or they're not being able to qualify here.
Again, I think this is an issue we should look at. I think it's an important one. I think a lot of Canadians are being cut off now. I get these a lot. I have received a lot of emails and phone calls from constituents in my riding. Probably there are about half a dozen serious cases and in maybe two dozen I'd say they're looking out in the next year ahead and seeing that they may have difficulty. For a lot of them, it's spousal situations or spousal breakdowns actually, where they had the income necessary to renew their mortgage and would be able to under normal circumstances, but the condition in Calgary is 8% unemployment and a great deal of underemployment, so people are having a difficult time proving income at renewal time in order to get the renewal.
A 2% stress test just adds on to that burden. We've seen the central bank increase the prime lending rate, which obviously has an impact because then you're getting to an even higher rate that you're trying to renew for. The mortgage carrying costs, which I want to mention, have risen substantially in almost all Canadian cities, according to a 2017 RBC report. I'm sure for 2018, that's just going to get worse.
Despite that OFSI made this rule change on January 1, which I'm sure was coming down the pipe from before, I'm sure it was something they were going to do anyway, a lot of people knew it was coming down, so the volume of mortgages being renewed was moved. You can see the volume was actually quite high in December 2017, and then goes down substantially afterwards. It hasn't picked up in May. I was waiting to see in May if there would be pickup. Typically May and June are really good months for mortgages in general. People go out, they see homes, it's springtime. They're either looking to upgrade, downsize, or they're looking to get a different type of property or just entry into the market. This is the time of year when you do it. This is the time of year when I did it when I purchased my house many years ago.
I think these B-20 rule changes are affecting new entrants into the property markets. Getting onto that property ladder, investing in your house is the best investment you will make, probably the best financial investment you will make if you manage it very wisely.
The second part of it is that it makes you invest in the community you're in. For a lot of the communities, where there is a high proportion of property ownership, typically, the community associations and resident associations in my riding do much better than in those areas where there is a high proportion of short-term renters, not long-term renters. Long-term renters take care of their homes and they really do care about the areas they live in and invest themselves in their communities.
According to the Financial Post, first-time buyers seem to be one of the groups most impacted by the B-20. Early results are saying that the stress test—as proposed—has squeezed millennials' home-buying budgets by about $40,000. That's about 16%. I asked Mr. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, when they would have the data necessary to do an assessment, and he said maybe in a year. I think we could start in the fall, after we've completed the statutory study that we're undertaking right now, in order to be able to have this on the docket and to be able to basically ask the Bank of Canada and others to produce data. There are many associations that have already started to do so.
I also want to give the context, though, for this study on B-20. This isn't the only rule change affecting mortgages. I'm just going to count them through, starting on December 2015, I see one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13—that's quite a few—14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 rule changes affecting mortgages leading up to this point. So the thing with B-20 is its cascade effect.
You have a series of rule changes and you now have interest rates that have gone up and they've made it more difficult for people to renew their mortgages or get into the property market, so I think this is worthy of study because we can look at B-20 by itself but we also have the benefit of two years of data impact on each rule change as it has come through.
I think that's beneficial. I think it's timely as well to do it in the fall. We'll see what the summer gives us in terms of volume sales, in terms of changes in pricing. I think B-20 was intended to target the Vancouver and Toronto markets specifically but the impact has been huge in small communities and in smaller cities, and I think when we look at the Canadian market, there's no such thing as one Canadian real estate market. There are a whole bunch of different markets. You compare homes in a locality, close to work, close to a good school—typically that's what our parents looked for. For those who don't have any kids, you're looking for easier transportation. Getting to and from work and going to the grocery store, those are the things they're looking at. Those people, new entrants, are being priced out of the market with these B-20 rule changes.
I have a list of the groups that I think we should specifically look at. If we pass it now, especially, we'll give the summer to all these different mortgage brokers and different associations, different business groups, to do some data work in anticipation of the committee undertaking a mortgage study.
Lastly, because I want to cede the ground and hear from the other side about what we could agree to on a study here, the Financial Post is reporting that mortgage growth in Canada hasn't been this weak since 2001. According to RBC, as of March, home sales in Calgary have plunged 18% year over year. Victoria's are down 19% year over year. The head of the Ontario Real Estate Association, Mr. Tim Hudak, said the cumulative effect of the new mortgage changes amounts to what he called “a war on homebuyers”. That was reported in the Huffington Post, and I think one of the most serious ones here is—and this is the one I'll finish on—the warning from Mortgage Professionals Canada that this new stress test would reduce housing demand by as much as 15%, in their view, resulting in 100,000 to 150,000 fewer jobs in the economy. That's 15% on demand. It's pretty big for one singular rule change.
I think it's worth studying just because it will have such a big impact on Canada's GDP growth at the end of the term, and we know what the numbers are like in budget 2018. I know that the fall is when we usually do our pre-budget round tables, so I think this study goes along very nicely with being able to inform the government on what it could do better, whether the rule change by OSFI was the wrong one, whether there are amendments to it, whether going back.... A lot of the proposals I've heard from industry are not saying to get rid of B-20 completely. They're just saying we should change the way it is being implemented, modify the stress test to something else, and make certain other changes to the rules as well.
I'm going to finish there. I'm willing to have a conversation about whether we could find unanimity here and find approval for this study, again, to start after the current one. That's the way the motion is worded—that after the current study is completed, this would be the next one to come up.
With that I'm going to cede the time. I'm sure members know I'm more than happy to talk it out, but I know we have guests here who are going to inform us on the review we're undertaking right now, so I'm looking forward to the conversation.