That's exactly right, and when we look at energy efficiency and housing, particularly new housing, we're doing incredibly well and have been for a long time. We're 50% better now than we were 25 years ago in new housing, and we continue to improve. The next changes are going to be very expensive changes. We've hit all the low-hanging fruit. As a simple example, we can't fit any more insulation in a wall, so we're getting fatter walls. That's not only more expensive to build; it's taking away from floor space.
Land prices, as everybody knows, are what's really driving a lot of the cost right now. You're talking about $30,000 or $40,000 when some of the stretch targets we're talking about are over the next 11 years. Eleven years is not a long time to change technology, and that's really what we're looking at.
Our main point on things like energy efficiency is that the code changes need to occur as they become affordable and not before, when they'll knock people out. We need to invest in research. We need to have affordability as part of the code process so that we don't say, “We're getting there no matter what the cost,” which, while not stated, is exactly where we are right now.
By 2030 we need to be at net zero ready levels. That's a 40% to 50% improvement in energy efficiency. It's $30,000 to $40,000 more on the average house, and that's in the Lower Mainland of B.C. In fact, in northern B.C., the latest studies show it might not even be possible with current technology to get to those types of levels in any way that makes sense.
We really need to look at it in such a way that we say, “If we want to get there, that's fine, but let's do it together. Let's find the affordable ways to do it, let's invest in research, and let's not put code provisions in place until we can show we have an affordable solution that's not knocking more people out of the market.”
The retrofit side is a whole other story. That's where the opportunity is. There is talk of regulation on the renovation side of the market. You have seen nothing in terms of push-back until you try to implement code effects on the retrofit side. Right now, when you change a code requirement, there's not really a voter there. That's why you see less push-back. You see organizations like the Canadian Home Builders' Association saying, “Hey, new homebuyers can't afford that”, but new homebuyers aren't really voters; they don't get that. However, try to say, “When you replace your siding, you're not just going to replace your siding; you're going to put $10,000 or $20,000 of insulation behind it,” and then you will hear about it. That's not going to go over very well. It's going to become very political. A tax credit, though, which incentivizes people to do it, is something we've seen work before, and we could see it happening again.