Yes.
The commodity shock—the known and now—is taking place in the investment side, and we're seeing a collapse in energy investment. Last year it was 35%, and this year most forecasters have it kind of pegged at another 25%. So it's a big hit. The hope is that the offset comes from the other side. When you get the negative commodity price shock, there are some offsets, and one is the currency. The currency has weakened alongside the commodity and at the same time, it's an effective tax cut to any importing nation or importing province. Effectively, it should be net positive for global growth, and we should see that particularly in the U.S. They have seen some of that tax cut effective in lower gas prices. Their savings rates are up on a year-to-year basis about $100 billion. So they're saving it. I think that's the uncertainty, and it will eventually get spent. But the U. S. growth is, as I've suggested in my comments, at 2.5%. It's taking place in the sectors we export to with a competitive currency. We're starting to see those export numbers turn around. They finished the year on a solid foundation. I think that will carry the support.
You still need consumer spending. It's 60% of the economy, so you can't have growth without a consumer sector. I just think that consumer spending is more moderate than in the past because you're not getting the extra kick from data accumulation, we hope.