Thank you, Mr. Chair, and welcome to everyone this afternoon. It's great to be back here for the start of the next couple of weeks.
First, I wanted to say a quick thank you. Being economic forecasters, there are a lot of inputs. You put data in and you then get data out. There is a lot of variability in some of those data inputs, which can change week to week. Where we saw a run-up in U. S. yields, there's been a rundown in U.S. yields just as quickly. Where we thought oil prices, based on WTI in U. S. dollars, would go up a little bit, they've come back down, obviously due to supply and demand. What I would argue is that it's a result of supply and demand balances, and not any sort of commodity funds moving the market or anything like that.
I read your forecast in the April 2017 “Economic and Fiscal Outlook” and wonder if you can identify two or three of your biggest risks to the forecast that you've provided us.