I'll describe the state of the economy first because that was also the premise of your question. We have noticed that economic growth has slowed sharply in the last quarter of 2019. We expect growth to be relatively modest in the first quarter, and that was before the oil price decline of recent days and the rail blockade. We expect growth to be barely positive in the first quarter of 2020.
With respect to the fiscal sustainability report, we released a report earlier this year that takes a long-term perspective of government finances—provincial and federal. In that report, we define fiscal sustainability as having the same debt-to-GDP ratio at the beginning of the period and at the end of the period. Granted, it's an arbitrary point, but that's the best definition that we could come up with in terms of sustainability. That report shows that in the absence of any changes in policies, the federal government has no fiscal sustainability issues, so it's financially sustainable. It has wiggle room to the tune of $41 billion to reduce taxes or increase spending, or a combination of both.
At the provincial level, it's a totally different story. In the aggregate, provinces need to make adjustments of $6 billion—$6.6 billion if my memory serves me well—with different pictures, depending on the provinces and territories. Some provinces are already sustainable through relatively high taxes that are matched with high spending in some cases, but taxes that match spending. Others are in more difficult financial situations for which there will need to be some adjustments over a 75-year horizon—that's important—and assuming status quo policies, which we know won't happen. That's why we call these projections rather than forecasts. We know one thing: This is not what will happen. There will be changes before that, for sure.