There are a lot of unknowns about how the recovery, when it comes, will unfold. We started into this in a reasonably good position. The unemployment rate was relatively low and the economy was starting to strengthen again after some weakness in the fall. The banks are in excellent shape. We see that there's every reason to believe that recovery could be starting over the summer once and if the containment measures are starting to be lifted slowly, and that that would continue into the fall.
Of course, that all depends on the timing of the containment measures. In one of our scenarios, we assume that starts to happen in May and June. Your constituents and other people across the country will start to see that those businesses that were deemed non-essential will start to open. Not all of them will, but many of them will. People will start going back to their jobs or being hired, and their hours will become longer. That will create what I would call a virtuous circle that would underpin confidence.
As the governor said, the programs being put in place today by the government—for example, the wage subsidy or help for paying rent and other things—are really designed to put a floor under that confidence, so then when things start to open, we can start to get back to normal. Programs that we put in place to shore up liquidity and credit may seem very remote to people in your constituency, but in fact they're just essential. These programs ensure that, if they need their line of credit or they need to have some forgiveness on their mortgage payments, the banks are in a position to do that. It's not guaranteed, but at least they're in the position.
I'd like to finish by saying that the one thing we should note is that there has been also a large drop in oil prices, which means that part of the recovery might take longer depending on what happens to oil prices. We think a lot of that is due to the COVID virus. Those prices should firm up over time, but we think with inventories as high as they are, that could take a bit longer.