First of all, I'm wondering about the amount. I don't think that as many projects have been studied or planned. In any case, there are three fundamental factors that make it impossible today to consider major investment projects, because that is what we're talking about here, be it expansion phases or something else.
The first factor is the market price. At the beginning of my presentation, a table was handed out showing that we are working on the basis of a price that is 30 years old, while our costs are at 2020 rates, which drastically reduces our profit margins. So, when we have to make a decision on an investment worth billions of dollars, this fundamental element is not in our favour.
The second factor is the instability of the U.S. market, where we export 90% of what we produce. This instability is due to the tariffs imposed on other producing countries. Tomorrow morning, Mr. Trump could get up and announce that he is ending the tariffs imposed on India and the Middle East, which would affect the whole price dynamic. That is unpredictability.
The third factor is what we call capital expenditures, that is, the construction costs of major industrial projects in Quebec and Canada. Building an aluminum smelter tomorrow or carrying out an expansion project would cost $8,000 per tonne. So, a 500,000-tonne aluminum smelter project would require a $4 billion investment. It would take 36 months to put it in place. In China, it costs $1,800 a tonne, and it is done in 14 months. So, before such a $4 billion project was completed, China would have had time to complete three in half the time.
Because of these three fundamental factors, we are unable, today, to design investment projects.