Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Good afternoon. Thank you for the invitation to speak at these pre-budget consultations in advance of the 2021 budget. I commend the committee for reaching out to the academic community of economists for public input on this important process.
It's been said many times that the COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented event in recent history, and this context frames my input into this process.
The fall 2020 economic statement documented the unprecedented effects of and response to the COVID-19 pandemic. For fiscal year 2020-21, real per capita revenues have declined by 20% from the previous year, while spending is up by 70%. In real terms, this is the highest per capita amount ever spent in Canadian fiscal history—nearly $16,000. As a share of GDP, the projected deficits will be the second-largest in Canadian fiscal history, exceeded only by those during World War II.
The fall statement reveals that spending will eventually decline and the deficit approach 1% of GDP by 2025-26, but also a federal net debt that will rise to $1.5 trillion and a net debt-to-GDP ratio remaining in excess of 50%. Despite current low interest rates making current debt management look manageable, it remains the case that any sudden future shocks to the economy or to interest rates could be more difficult to manage as debt burdens rise.
The size of the initial fiscal response to the onset of the pandemic in the February-to-April period of 2020 was appropriate. However, the continuing, unprecedented fiscal response generated results that have not paralleled the fiscal support provided. The fiscal assertiveness of the federal response to the pandemic was not matched by assertiveness in targeting the response as might have been afforded under federal spending power or the power of quarantine that exists under the Constitution. Moreover, much of the spending went toward individual income transfers in excess of the pandemic-generated income losses. After all of this unprecedented response, we are now in the midst of a more severe second wave that threatens the economic recovery that began over the summer.
The federal 2021 budget must learn from the past and better target any additional projected fiscal response with a view to long-term economic recovery and growth. The additional spending must be directed towards productivity-boosting investment. Even prior to the pandemic, the business investment-to-GDP ratio had been faltering. While the short-term income support provided at the peak of the pandemic was important, if we are to continue to spend at these record levels, there must be more to show for it.
Government spending priorities should be directed towards initiatives for boosting our long-term productivity via investment in physical and human infrastructure. Public infrastructure in roads and transport; bridges; communications; schools; health care; water, sewer and environmental systems all require investment. Education has taken a major blow during the pandemic, and we need to ensure that students at the elementary, secondary and post-secondary levels do not fall behind in educational achievement and opportunities and reduce future labour productivity growth.
Then there is the matter of our national defence and security in a more multipolar and unstable world that requires equipment and resources and vision.
There is also a need for private sector investment in sectors producing goods and services that we can export so that we can continue to earn our way in the world. If our export markets falter and our incomes drop, there will be no international emergency response benefit payments offered to us. The federal government, therefore, should work with the private sector in assessing its investment needs.
Historically, excessively large amounts of government spending are not well correlated with long-term economic growth. It's not that government cannot help the economy, but that effective government requires knowing when to spend and when not to spend and, more importantly, what to spend the money on.
If we are to embark on a program of infrastructure spending, we must ensure that projects with the best return are selected. Assorted public projects should be assessed by an arm's length panel of key leaders with expertise in business, accounting, engineering and economics who can make recommendations in areas of national interest. It would be extremely unfortunate if federal infrastructure money flowed to community or sports centres rather than, say, roads and sewers, simply because shovel-ready plans exist for the former and not the latter.
Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak to you all, and I look forward to the discussion.