If you look back, you'll see that we've actually been saying for some time that inflation would go above the 2% target for a period on roughly the first anniversary of the pandemic. Just to elaborate, I think you'll remember that a year ago the economy went over a cliff. Oil prices actually went negative. Gasoline prices were incredibly low, and prices of things that were deeply affected by the pandemic—airfares, for example, since airlines were seriously constrained—plummeted.
We measure inflation as the 12-month rate of change of the CPI. We have the March number of 2.2, which is relative to March of last year. When prices were highly depressed a year ago we had a temporary rise in inflation. That's a temporary effect due to these technical base-year effects. The underlying pressure on inflation from the economy is still downward because there is still considerable end-use capacity still. Those technical effects will fade, and inflation will come down because of these downward pressures. That's why we need to continue to provide support.