I appreciate the guidance that I'm getting from colleagues around the table. It shows you, Mr. Chair, that they underestimate the essential use that Canadian energy has to the national unity of Canadians, the health of their retirement and their savings, and how misguided their amendment to the motion has been. It's something that I think is absolutely relevant to get into, in terms of understanding the power of our energy sector and the ways it can be used to ensure the pensions of all Canadians.
If we had national unity around these issues, then this wouldn't even be an issue to begin with. If Albertans felt that their energy sector was taken seriously, unlike now, in which it's being denigrated by members across the way.... It is unsurprising, frankly. This has been their MO for quite some time—eight long years, I've been advised. That is how long they've been against our energy sector.
I am grateful to have the opportunity to introduce Dr. Exner-Pirot's work and her findings about how our fossil fuels and their molecules are “incredibly flexible, available, and useful...even when we stop using them for combustion, demand for them for other uses — plastic, textiles, rubber, packaging, detergents fertilizer — will continue to grow.” This is a bedrock of our national economic life and what feeds our pensions.
“They are also essential in the production of solar panels, wind turbine blades, batteries and thermal insulation” in our energy ingenuity, which is certainly something that Conservatives stand to support in promoting every aspect of our economic life.
Dr. Exner-Pirot continues, “Likewise, oilsands bitumen components like asphaltenes and resins are used in many products that light crude cannot provide, and can be developed into advanced material such as carbon fibre, which in turn could displace carbon-intensive steel.”
We're talking about the component parts of Canadian energy, the manufacturing process that feeds our pensions and in which our national unity needs to be upheld.
She says:
The more immediate question, however, is if we will stop using hydrocarbons for fuel. Here, the pragmatist must concede that the problem with fossil fuels is not the fuel per se, but the emissions. It is going to be far cheaper and faster to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into carbon capture, than it will be to replace tens of trillions of dollars worth of fossil fuel infrastructure with brand new energy systems.
LNG can already be produced and burned with very low emissions, and blue hydrogen (derived from natural gas) does even better. Japan and other countries that are pragmatic in their energy deliberations are already preparing for that version of the future.
Fossil fuels have been demonized....
“Demonized”, she writes. Demonized, she said, because she knows that this is part of the record of division that the Trudeau Liberals are imposing across this country.
She continues:
and so it has become popular to want to eliminate them, alongside Big Oil, as part of a just transition. That is not practical, in fact it's impossible. The smarter strategy—which Canada should be leading instead of sabotaging
—that's to the point of national unity—
is one that focuses relentlessly on eliminating the emissions caused by burning hydrocarbons, and using them for clean energy and materials instead.
That is the plan that Dr. Exner-Pirot suggested would strengthen our national unity in a time of great division. But this was a year ago. This was before Germany and Japan came to Canada, as a united country, and said “Listen, we need your energy. We want to create revenues for your country in a way that actually helps lower emissions around the world, helps your people be prosperous, helps to deflate the support that dictator oil has been leveraging around the world.” That is certainly something critical to the motion at hand.
I think even further about the kind of opportunity we have, as a country, were we an energy superpower. In fact, Heather Exner-Pirot published a piece in October of this year, just a month ago, where she said, “Canada could have been an energy superpower. Instead we became a bystander”.
This record of division has resulted in a country that has been weakened in its influence around the world. Liberals pretend that a trade agreement is the only antidote to solving the war in Ukraine when, frankly, our gas displacing Russian gas in Europe would defeat the Russians in one fell swoop.
So let's describe the kind of power that Canada could have as a united country. We could have been an energy superpower because the “Government”—the summary says—“has imposed a series of regulatory burdens on the energy industry, creating confusion, inefficiency and expense”.
This is the kind of division we see in the country. Allow me to venture deeper into this, because I think it's an argument worth reflecting on very carefully. This is the stuff that fuels our pensions. This is the stuff that fuels the retirement of every Canadian:
Oil arguably remains the most important commodity in the world today. It paved the way for the industrialization and globalization trends of the post-World War II era, a period that saw the fastest human population growth and largest reduction in extreme poverty ever. Its energy density, transportability, storability, and availability have made oil the world's greatest source of energy, used in every corner of the globe.
There are geopolitical implications inherent in a commodity of such significance and volume. The contemporary histories of Russia, Iran, Venezuela...Iraq [and others] are intertwined with their roles as major oil producers, roles [that] they have used to advance their (often illiberal) interests on the world stage. It is fair to ask why Canada has never seen fit to advance its own values and interests through its vast energy reserves. It is easy to conclude that its reluctance to do so has been a major policy failure.
I will comment here. It's a major policy failure with impact on our pensions and on our economic life, and a major policy failure with impacts on our national unity. Team Canada is certainly not team Canada. It's divided Canada. It's broken Canada. Yet this is despite the fact that, as Heather writes:
Canada has been blessed with the world's third largest reserves of oil, the vast majority of which are in the oil sands of northern Alberta
—my home province and Garnett's backyard—
although there is ample conventional oil across Western Canada and offshore Newfoundland and Labrador as well. The oil sands contain 1.8 trillion barrels of oil, of which just under 10 percent, or 165 billion barrels, are technically and economically recoverable with today's technology. Canada currently extracts over 1 billion barrels of that oil each year.
Just as an aside, when Germany came to Canada, they asked for our natural gas. Had we made that deal with them, the revenue to Canada—Dr. Christian Leuprecht and I have written about this—would be the sum total of $65 billion a day. In its entirety, that revenue to the Canadian treasury alone would be three times the national budget. It would help us pay down our debt. That one deal with Germany would have done so much good in this world.
Let's continue with Dr. Exner-Pirot's commentary here:
The technology necessary to turn the oil sands into bitumen that could then be exported profitably really took off in the early 2000s. Buoyed by optimism of its potential, then Prime Minister Stephen Harper pronounced in July 2006 that Canada would soon be an “energy superproducer.” A surge of investment came to the oil sands during the commodity supercycle of 2000-2014, which saw oil peak at a price of $147/barrel in 2008. For a few good years, average oil prices sat just below $100 a barrel. Alberta was booming until it crashed.
Two things happened that made Harper's prediction fall apart. The first was the shale revolution—the combination of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling that made oil from the vast shale reserves in the [U.S.] economical to recover. Until then, the US had been the world's biggest energy importer. In 2008 it was producing just 5 million barrels of crude oil a day, and had to import 10 million barrels a day to meet its ravenous need. Shale changed that, and the US is now the world's biggest oil producer, expecting to hit a production level of 12.4 million barrels a day in 2023.
The United States is now a competitor to Canada in energy production and, in this, it is a vital interest of ours to unlock that potential for our pensions, for our people, for our workers and for our country in every aspect of our national life.
Heather continues:
For producers extracting oil from the oil sands, the shale revolution was a terrible outcome. Just as new major oil sands projects were coming online and were producing a couple of million barrels a day, our only oil customer was becoming energy self-sufficient.
Because the [U.S.] was such a reliable and thirsty oil consumer, it never made sense for Canada to export its oil to any other nation, and the country never built the pipeline or export terminal infrastructure to do so. Our southern neighbour wanted all we produced. But the cheap shale oil that flooded North America in the 2010s made that dependence a huge mistake as other markets would have proven to be more profitable.
If shale oil took a hatchet to the Canadian oil industry, the election of the Liberals in 2015 brought on its death by a thousand cuts. For the last eight years, federal policies have incrementally and cumulatively damaged the domestic oil and gas sector. With the benefit of hindsight in 2023, it is obvious that this has had major consequences for global energy security, as well as opportunity costs for Canadian foreign policy.
This is a country that, when united, could be performing way above where we are today. She continues:
Once the shale revolution began in earnest, the urgency in the sector to be able to export oil to any other market than the United States led to proposals for the Northern Gateway, Energy East, and TMX pipelines. Opposition from Quebec and BC killed Energy East and Northern Gateway, respectively. The saga of TMX may finally end this year, as it is expected to go into service in late 2023, billions of dollars over cost and years overdue thanks to regulatory and jurisdictional hurdles.
Because Canada has been stuck selling all of its oil to the United States, it does so at a huge discount, known as a differential. That discount hit a staggering US$46 per barrel difference in October 2018, when [West Texas Intermediate] oil was selling for $57 a barrel, but we could only get $11 for [Western Canada Select]. The lack of pipelines and the resulting differential created losses to the Canadian economy of $117 billion between 2011 and 2018, according to Frank McKenna, former Liberal New Brunswick Premier and Ambassador to the United States, and now Deputy Chairman of TD Bank.
As an aside, these are people who understand how our economic life is managed and how our people can retire safely. Furthermore, she adds:
The story is not dissimilar with liquefied natural gas (LNG). While both the [U.S.] and Canada had virtually no LNG export capacity in 2015, the United States has since grown to be the world’s biggest LNG exporter, helping Europe divest itself of its reliance on Russian gas and making tens of billions of dollars in the process. Canada still exports none, with regulatory uncertainty and slow timelines killing investor interest. In fact, the United States imports Canadian natural gas—which it buys for the lowest prices in the world due to that differential problem—and then resells it to our allies for a premium.
We're being taken by the nose, because the Prime Minister is more interested in dividing Canadians rather than uniting us around our mutual success. Moreover, Heather notes:
Canada’s inability to build pipelines and export capacity is a major problem on its own. But the federal government has also imposed a series of regulatory burdens and hurdles on the industry, one on top of the other, creating confusion, inefficiency, and expense. It has become known in Alberta as a “stacked pancake” approach.
Let's now get into the anatomy of how the Prime Minister has divided Canadians and is undermining the unity of the country when it comes to our CPP or any other proposition that we have for the world. She states:
The first major burden was Bill C-48, the tanker moratorium.
Do you remember that one?
In case anyone considered reviving the Northern Gateway project, the Liberal government banned oil tankers from loading anywhere between the northernmost point of Vancouver Island to the BC-Alaska border. That left a pathway only for TMX, which goes through Vancouver, amidst fierce local opposition. I have explained it to my American colleagues this way: imagine if Texas was landlocked, and all its oil exports had to go west through California, but the federal government banned oil tankers from loading anywhere on the Californian coast except through ports in San Francisco. That is what C-48 did in Canada.
It's a brilliant analogy. Furthermore, she continues:
Added to Bill C-48 was Bill C-69, known colloquially as the “no new pipelines” bill and now passed as the Impact Assessment Act, which has successfully deterred investment in the sector. It imposes new and often opaque regulatory requirements, such as having to conduct a gender-based analysis before proceeding with new projects to determine how different genders will experience them: “a way of thinking, as opposed to a unique set of prescribed methods,” according to the federal government. It also provides for a veto from the Environment and Climate Change Canada Minister—currently, Steven Guilbeault—on any new in situ oil sands projects or interprovincial or international pipelines, regardless of the regulatory agency’s recommendation.
This is the division incarnate that Prime Minister Trudeau has deployed against Alberta's energy sector, against Albertans and against the national unity that compels our CPP.
Heather continues:
The Alberta Court of Appeal has determined that the act is unconstitutional, and eight other provinces are joining in its challenge.
This is the image of a divided country.
But so far it is the law of the land, and
—for very good reason—
investors are allergic to it.
Federal carbon pricing, and Alberta’s federally compatible alternative for large emitters, the TIER (Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction) Regulation, was added next, though this regulation makes sense for advancing climate goals. It is the main driver for encouraging emission reductions, and includes charges for excess emissions as well as credits for achieving emissions below benchmark. It may be costly for producers, but from an economic perspective, of all the climate policies carbon pricing is the most efficient.
Industry has committed to their shareholders that they will reduce emissions; their social license and their investment attractiveness depends to some degree on it. The major oil sands companies have put forth a credible plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. One conventional operation in Alberta is already net zero thanks to its use of carbon capture technology. Having a predictable and recognized price on carbon is also providing incentives to a sophisticated carbon tech industry in Canada, which can make money by finding smart ways to sequester and use carbon.
Isn't it amazing that the energy sector that helps our country recover from economic calamity and from postpandemic planning is also the same sector that's leading innovation and energy transition technology? It's this ingenuity that needs to be unlocked that Heather describes so perfectly here.
She continues:
In theory, carbon pricing should succeed in reducing emissions in the most efficient way possible. Yet the federal government keeps adding more policies on top of carbon pricing. The Canadian Clean Fuel Standard, introduced in 2022, mandates that fuel suppliers must lower the “lifecycle intensity” of their fuels, for example by blending them with biofuels, or investing in hydrogen, renewables, and carbon capture. This standard dictates particular policy solutions, causes the consumer price of fuels to increase, facilitates greater reliance on imports of biofuels, and conflicts with some provincial policies.
Again, a policy of the federal government is pursuing division at every turn across this entire country.
Heather adds:
It is also puts new demands on North American refinery capacity, which is already highly constrained.
The newest but perhaps most damaging proposal is for an emissions cap, which seeks to reduce emissions solely from the oil and gas sector by 42 percent by 2030.
Listen. This is an all-out attack on common sense.
Moreover, Heather, says:
This target far exceeds what is possible with carbon capture in that time frame, and can only be achieved through a dramatic reduction in production. The emissions cap is an existential threat to Canada’s oil and gas industry, and it comes at a time when our allies are trying, and failing, to wean themselves off of Russian oil. The economic damage to the Canadian economy is hard to overestimate.
In fact, I would contend that what Dr. Exner-Pirot is describing here is how Justin Trudeau is helping Vladimir Putin fund his war machine against Ukrainians, and it's unconscionable that members across the way would just allow that to happen. At the end of the day, we cannot allow the Canadian Prime Minister to be a partner of Vladimir Putin in how he has been murdering and butchering innocent Ukrainians. This is something that you'd think members across the way would care about, but they're not even paying attention to what we're saying here in this moment.
Heather notes:
Oil demand is growing, and even in the most optimistic forecasts it will continue to grow for another decade before plateauing. Our European and Asian allies are already dangerously reliant on Russia and Middle Eastern states for their oil. American shale production is peaking, and will soon start to decline. Low investment levels in global oil exploration and production, due in part to ESG (environmental, social, and governance) and climate polices, are paving the way for shortages by mid-decade.
An energy crisis is looming. Canada is not too late to be the energy superproducer the democratic world needs in order to prosper and be secure. We need more critical minerals, hydrogen, hydro, and nuclear power. But it is essential that we export globally significant levels of oil and LNG as well, using carbon capture, utilization, and storage...wherever possible.
Heather concludes:
Meeting this goal will require a very different approach than the one currently taken by the federal government: it must be an approach that encourages growth and exports even as emissions are reduced. What the government has done instead is deter investment, dampen competitiveness, and hand market share to Russia and OPEC.
This is the devastating cost that the division of Justin Trudeau and his NDP-Liberals had on our Canadian national unity. This is the type of indictment of the kind of leadership that has created problems that we didn't need to deal with had there been in the Alberta energy sector a partner in the national government.
It was partner that was part of team Canada, part of defeating Russia's war in Ukraine, part of lowering emissions internationally, part of economic reconciliation with our first nations, and part of a healthy and vibrant pension life for our people. It was to provide stability and security of a social safety net for the most vulnerable, and part of being allied with workers, so they can get shovels in the ground—