At the end of our monetary policy report, we pointed out that certain risks surround our forecasts. Some of these risks are upward, while others are downward. The upward risks certainly include the war between Israel and Hamas, the attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the lower water levels in the Panama Canal.
So far, we haven't seen a major impact from these incidents. However, if they continue and escalate, and if other countries start to take part in the war, the price of oil could rise sharply. This would have a quick and direct impact on inflation. Transportation costs will also be affected. If there are further issues with supply chains in the Red Sea or the Panama Canal, transportation costs could rise. This could affect the price of a number of goods. There is indeed a risk. So far, we haven't seen much.
Regarding the second part of your question, since the start of the conflict in Israel and Gaza, the price of oil has fallen by around $10. It has remained fairly stable in recent weeks. When we revised our forecasts, our hypothetical oil price was $10 lower than our October forecasts. This factor lowers inflation somewhat in our forecasts.