I guess the first point to make is that the federal budget was tabled after our latest forecast, so it is not included in the latest monetary policy report. Most provincial governments tabled their budgets ahead of our monetary policy report, so they are included in the forecast. Also, a number of provinces increased deficit finance spending. That is reflected in our forecast. It increases the contribution to growth from governments overall. Increasing spending and fiscal deficits when we're trying to get inflation down is not helpful.
The federal budget, as I said, is not included in our forecast. We will update our forecast in July and include it. Looking at the federal government, what you see is that spending is also up, and this is largely matched by an increase in revenue. Revenue is higher because the forecast for growth is stronger—which generates more tax revenue—and because there are some new fiscal measures, the most significant being the increase in the inclusion rate on the capital gains tax. The combined effect of these is that the fiscal track—by which I mean the track of deficit to GDP and debt to GDP—has not changed significantly from a macro perspective since the fall economic statement.
Yes, we'll have to look at the various measures. Different measures have different fiscal multipliers. However, at a very macro level, there's more spending going into the economy and more tax revenue coming out of the economy. The net effect from a macro perspective probably won't be that big, so I don't expect it will have a material impact on our forecast.