We estimate, based on the budget document tabled on April 16, that there's a 72% chance that the federal debt-to-GDP ratio in 2029 will be below its 2022-23 level of 41.7%. However, as you pointed out, that's assuming there are no new measures beyond those that were announced in the most recent budget—or at least that, if there are new measures, they are offset by expenditure reductions elsewhere, or by tax increases.
Should there be additional expenditures not paid for by additional tax increases or reductions elsewhere, it reduces the likelihood that the debt-to-GDP ratio will end up lower than it was in 2023.