I wouldn't use that analogy to talk about the refinancing risk that's present.
For mortgagors who have taken out three- to five-year fixed mortgages and face renewal over the next two to three years, the stair-step up in higher mortgage costs will be more manageable—in the 15% to 30% range—just depending on the timing of their last mortgage.
So far, it appears to us that Canadians are managing that increased cost.
There is a small component of the mortgage market of mortgagors who, particularly during the pandemic, took out variable rate mortgages that had fixed payments. Those folks could face mortgage payment increases of around 50%. It varies by mortgage and timing, but 50% is a good ballpark. That is a very significant shock to monthly finances, and it's one we're very concerned about.
We have an early indicator on that risk, and that is people who took variable rate mortgages with variable payments. By and large, they're managing that rising cost of interest, but their delinquency rates are higher than those for people with fixed payments. It is not dramatic; it is incremental.