The evidence is clear, both from a snapshot in time of who pays taxes on capital gains in any given year and then from the limited longitudinal data that has been compiled, that the main impact of this change will be on the highest 1% to 2% of Canadian taxpayers. In any given year, only 0.13% of them individually will claim capital gains over $250,000 and therefore have any capital gains at all subject to the higher inclusion rate.
Even over time, given that there are irregularities in how capital gains are staged in someone's life, the vast majority of those gains are concentrated at the top. In fact, over time, they're more concentrated at the top than in a given year, for the fact that it's very well-off people who tend to claim capital gains year after year, rather than as a one-time event.
It's not only those people. There are obviously circumstances where an individual of generally modest means will face some additional taxation because of this, but the vast majority of the impact will be felt by the highest-income Canadians only.