Well, as I mentioned, obviously, I was early in bringing this to people's attention with the first edition of my book. My thesis is that the housing market has to correct back to the trend line.
Research done by Jeremy Grantham shows that all bubbles burst, and all bubbles correct back to the trend line, or lower.
The trend line in Canadian housing would be a pretty severe correction in the 50% range. When I say that, people gasp, obviously, but the correction in the U.S. in 2008-09 was 38%, and their bubble was much smaller than the Canadian bubble. It took four years. The peak in prices in the U.S. was in 2006, and the prices bottomed in 2010.
By the way, they have now recovered back to the original 2006 prices in the U.S., but that took, obviously, 12 years to accomplish.
That would be the model, the template, but I would also mention that the Canadian housing bubble is much more exaggerated than the U.S. bubble was in 2006.