Finance Committee on March 31st, 2022

[Sophie Chatel, Liberal, Pontiac, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I would like to echo my colleague, MP Blaikie.

As a public servant in finance before, when we received questions from committee, they were a priority. When some requests require an extensive amount of work, we put aside other very important work. Given the labour shortage, I invite my colleague to be careful of what we ask for.

Mr. Peterson, what is your estimate of the time it will take for Statistics Canada to engage in those studies that we are requesting today?

[Greg Peterson]

The big challenge will be in taking a look at the old school baskets. I think the biggest challenge is that there were commodities that were sold in the 1980s that may not be sold now, like VHS cassette tapes. This is similar to the commodities that are sold now that didn't exist in the 1980s, such as streaming services.

I honestly couldn't give you an assessment of the time it will take to come up with those estimates.

[Sophie Chatel, Liberal, Pontiac, QC]

Thank you.

My question is about the projection of inflation. I've heard about different studies. In the OECD's projections, the situation will stabilize.

I wonder if you have any projections for Canada. Do we have reason to be hopeful?

[Greg Peterson]

At Statistics Canada, we don't forecast where inflation is going to go. What we focus on is taking a look at what's happening by taking a look at individual commodities and what's happening in supply chains.

There is a whole range of external factors that could affect inflation over the next six months to a year. We're really not in a position to do that simulation analysis and guess where inflation is going to be.

[Sophie Chatel, Liberal, Pontiac, QC]

Thank you.

About the comparison of Canada with other countries, what do you note from the key problems we are facing globally? We talked a bit earlier about oil and gas, about commodities and housing in various cities around the world. Globally, we talked about the war in eastern Europe and about gas production in the Middle East.

We haven't talked yet about climate change. How do you see climate change affecting...and how can you measure that?

[Greg Peterson]

Climate change I see as a longer-term thing. I take a look at what's happened over the course of the past year, the droughts that we experienced in North America. The weather-related event of the drought for sure had an impact on crop yields, both in Canada and the United States, and severely affected the commodities that are grown in those areas.

Insofar as Canada and the United States are important producers of those grains, then, of course you're going to see an impact on consumer prices.

[Sophie Chatel, Liberal, Pontiac, QC]

Thank you very much.

I see that I have one minute left.

With the minute I have, I want to say that I have tabled a motion on green finance for future discussion in our plan to study inflation. I'm really happy to table this for further discussion in this committee. Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Peter Fonseca]

Merci, MP Chatel. I guess that was sent to the clerk and distributed already.

[Sophie Chatel, Liberal, Pontiac, QC]

Yes, it was.

[The Chair, Liberal, Peter Fonseca]

Okay. That's great. You're so efficient. That's awesome.

Members, witnesses, we're moving into our last round, our fourth round. Looking at the time, as I usually do, for all the parties, I will divide it evenly. I'm looking at about four minutes for each of the parties.

We are starting with the Conservatives, and we have MP Lawrence up for those four minutes.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Peterborough South, ON]

Thank you very much.

I wanted to clarify on the food, because I don't know if the viewers would have a clear idea about it. I'll quote from Monsieur Charlebois's article. He said, “Over the next few weeks, the database containing the average prices of 52 products sold in Canadian grocery stores will be completely removed by Statistics Canada.”

You're not denying that, right?

[Greg Peterson]

I am, absolutely. We're not going to remove the database.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Peterborough South, ON]

So that's incorrect.

[Greg Peterson]

We are not going to remove the database.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Peterborough South, ON]

Okay.

Will you be updating that database from this point forward?

[Greg Peterson]

Maybe I can turn to Ms. Ertl to describe exactly what we're going to be doing with that average price table.

[Heidi Ertl]

Thanks for the opportunity to clarify this.

First of all, the average price table is, as Mr. Peterson mentioned, separate from the CPI, so I want to make sure that all the members and the viewers understand that. There are absolutely no changes to the way we measure or publish the food indexes as part of the CPI.

For the average prices table, we are consolidating two tables, so that viewers and data users will have national average prices as well as provincial average prices in one convenient place. The quality of the data will be enhanced, because we will be drawing from our scanner data, which is the point-of-sale data from 21 grocery chains across the country.

To the extent possible, we will attempt to include historical information for the new series being brought in, but there will definitely not be any removal of the old database. Methodological notes will be included to ensure that users can interpret and use the data in the proper format.

I'd like to mention that we have been fully transparent about this change, announcing it first in February, again in March, and then directly to our stakeholders and data users via email.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Peterborough South, ON]

Thank you for that.

I'm not in any way meaning to criticize the new series, but the old series will not be updated. Is that correct?

[Heidi Ertl]

At this moment, that is the plan. It's basically because of the methodological differences. As things evolve and we obtain new data sources, it will be important to focus on the new data sources and not mix concepts.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Peterborough South, ON]

You could have two different streams, though, and my understanding is that's what they've done in the United States on similar food tables. It is possible to have those two sets, and this would give us some better historical data in the times when we're experiencing historical food prices. That would be a suggestion to you.

[Greg Peterson]

Again, it would be our advice that if users are taking a look at food inflation or the change in food prices, they focus on the consumer price index itself.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Peterborough South, ON]

Clearly, though, you have the food table for a reason.

[Greg Peterson]

We provide the food table for users who want to look at the average price of a particular commodity. I would suggest that the average food price table is not the best tool to track food price changes over time.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Peterborough South, ON]

Not the aggregate, but if you're looking for a particular commodity in a time when those food prices are going up, taking the data off would not, I think, at least from this observer, be a great way to go.

When we look at inflation, you note a couple of things that have decreased, including car insurance, but overall, through the vast majority of the categories, we're seeing increases in prices. Is that correct?

[Greg Peterson]

That's correct.