If you go back to our January report, we were expecting inflation to peak at around 5%. We were expecting that by this point we would be starting to see some early signs that inflation would be starting to turn. The latest March CPI number at 6.7% is obviously well above 5%.
The other thing that is even more significant from our perspective is that for the outlook for inflation, the track is higher. If you go back to January, we thought we'd be around the top of our 1% to 3% control range by the time we got to the end of this year. We now think we'll probably be 4% and something around the end of this year.
It's not just that it's gone up, but it's going to be up for longer. It's going to take longer to come down.
That's the sense in which we have been surprised by the persistence and pervasiveness of these supply shocks. We've obviously been surprised by the unprovoked attack of Ukraine. These things are not going to work.... The war is ongoing. I don't know when that war is going to end. For the sake of everybody, I hope it ends very soon, but it's further disrupting supply chains. Outbreaks of COVID in China are going to further disrupt the supply chain.
It's going to last longer and there is some uncertainty. What there isn't any uncertainty about is the Bank of Canada's resolve to use its tools to bring inflation back to target. We are responding where we have been surprised. That's really the value of having a clear mandate.