Good afternoon Mr. Chair and members of the committee.
Thank you for the invitation to appear before you today.
We are pleased to be here to discuss the analysis of your study of Bill C‑19, An Act to implement certain provisions of the budget tabled in Parliament on April 7, 2022 and other measures.
With me today are Xiaoyi Yan, Director, Budgetary Analysis.
In compliance with the mandate of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, which consists of providing independent and non-partisan analyses to Parliament, we published our analysis of the 2022 budget on April 22. In the report, we identified several key issues to assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, and also presented updated fiscal and economic projections.
I will now continue my remarks in English.
In terms of transparency, budget 2022 includes long-term economic and fiscal projections, which improve fiscal transparency and contribute to sustainability analysis. However, the analysis provided in the budget would be further enhanced by the inclusion of additional details, such as long-term projections of old age security, employment insurance and children's benefits.
It's also worth noting that while the budget includes some of the measures from the Liberal Party's 2021 election platform, the implementation of any remaining platform measures and additional commitments not accounted for in the budget, such as pharmacare, will impact the budgetary balance going forward.
Our report also notes the continued misalignment of financial reporting, as budget 2022 was tabled a month after the government's main estimates. Parliamentarians could be well served by adopting a new legislative or administrative framework to enforce better alignment among the government's various financial reports.
Following this assessment, on May 17 we published a stochastic debt sustainability analysis of the medium-term outlook presented in budget 2022. The report provides a stress test of the government's financial position. Based on past experience, our results suggest that the government could maintain debt sustainability over the medium term. However, our results also suggest that on balance, there is upside risk to the budget 2022 projection of gross debt as a share of GDP.
In addition to our reports, my office has also released independent cost estimates of selected measures contained in budget 2022, including the mobility tax deduction for tradespersons and indentured apprentices and the luxury goods sales tax.
We would be pleased to respond to any questions you may have regarding our analysis of budget 2022 or other PBO work.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.