Of course. It's not an easy question to answer, because the analysis is rather technical. For the econometricians who may be listening, I would say that the analysis is based on a series of analyses and simulations using the Monte Carlo method, which has nothing to do, unfortunately, with the eponymous tax haven. We made use of parameters from the past 30 years, meaning from 1990‑1991 up to the period immediately prior to the pandemic. We consider the various economic variables, like GDP, inflation and the interest rate, and observe how these variables behave themselves over this lengthy period. We then put all of that into a model whose starting point is right now.
What do we get as the future trajectory of the debt if the economic and macroeconomic parameters vary from what we have seen over the past two decades? We get a distribution of the possible scenarios, and that's what we base our estimates of probabilities on. They're not really probabilities, but rather a range of possibilities within which the government might or might not meet its objectives.
In short, we look at what happened in recent decades, we introduce the data into a model based on current parameters, and by looking at the past, we can see what the future might hold for us. This does not of course take extraordinary events like a pandemic or a war into consideration, but it gives us a very good idea of the future debt trajectory.