Based on our simulations, the probability is approximately two out of three that the gross debt-to-GDP ratio in 2026‑2027 will be lower than in 2021‑2022. It's therefore likely that the gross debt-to-GDP ratio will be lower in five years than it was in March. Of course, it all depends on numerous factors. The future will tell.
In the current state of things, we believe that the probabilities are fairly good, even though we don't know for sure. Two out of three is nevertheless a fairly good scenario.