I'd highlight two sources of risk. Look, there is a lot of uncertainty in the global economy. There is a horrific war in Europe. China continues to deal with COVID, with recurring waves, resulting in new shutdowns. We can't control global events. A number of the important prices in our economy—particularly the price of oil, which feeds directly the price of gasoline and the price of many imported foods—are determined in global markets. We can't control those. There are certainly risks that oil prices could go sharply higher. That would definitely affect gasoline prices and heating prices, and it would definitely affect headline inflation.
Another source of risk is that service prices, as we know, tend to be among the stickiest in the economy. Service price inflation in Canada now is running at about 5%. The good news is that after rising rapidly, it hasn't moved up further. What we're watching for very closely are signs that it's really starting to come down. We've yet to see really convincing evidence that it's starting to come down, but we are hopeful that this will come as we get into the new year.
There is a risk that the inflation in Canada is more embedded, that it is more entrenched and it proves harder to get down than we expect. There are also some possibilities that things could come down faster. We do think that our forecast is reasonably balanced, but as I said in my opening remarks, when inflation is 7%, you're more worried about the upside risks than the downside risks.
Thank you.