Of course I can tell you about that.
We released our economic and fiscal outlooks at the end of October. In our economic outlook, we assume that the Bank of Canada and central banks around the world won't tighten monetary policy more than necessary.
In October, we estimated that the prime rate that the Bank of Canada needed to control inflation should be about 4%. That's still our opinion. A rate of 4% would be enough to lower inflation to 2.3% in 2024 and then to 2% in 2025 and subsequent years.
In a scenario where central banks, including the Bank of Canada, further restrain monetary policy, in other words, if they raise interest rates more than necessary, the inflation rate would fall slightly more sharply, but that would result in significant costs.
In our base case scenario, in which the Bank of Canada and other central banks take necessary action without going too far, inflation would decline further in subsequent years. Economic growth would pause slightly in 2023, then gradually resume in 2024 in ensuing years.