Let me answer that in two ways.
First of all, all the indicators suggest that the economy is clearly in excess demand. You referenced that there's a particularly a wide range of labour market indicators that suggest that the economy remains overheated. If our forecast is correct that growth is around zero for the first three quarters of this year, that gap is going to shrink reasonably quickly. It's always a little bit hard to say exactly when it's going to flip from positive to negative, because you get a small positive or small negative, but our own forecast suggests that it would happen some time in the first half of this year.
As I said, I wouldn't get too hung up on exactly when it flips. What you really want to watch for is excess demand really diminishing, because that's what will relieve those domestic inflationary pressures, and that's critical, particularly to get services price inflation down.