In fact, according to our baseline forecast and the latest published forecasts, we are expecting a mild temporary recession. What's happening in banking, particularly in the United States, and its ramifications on the economy, may in fact lead to a moderate recession, in other words, a typical recession.
As to your question about Quebec specifically, there is negative growth of 0.2%, hence a 0.2% drop in real GDP growth. For Canada as a whole, the increase is 0.6%. Quebec accordingly does not have any less exposure to current risks. There was a strong correction in the real estate and other markets, in terms of housing starts, and we are expecting that to continue.
Consumers have been showing a great deal of caution. Not only have plans to make major purchases been put on hold, but they are at a record low. Household confidence has not yet returned.
What's keeping the Quebec economy afloat is the labour market. That's what has been preventing a disaster for the time being. Once again, some time-lag effects may have an impact on labour market resilience.
The good news is that there is a labour shortage. Many companies may find themselves in a better position to retain workers or to go looking for more talent. That should mitigate the increase in the unemployment rate that we are expecting. That's why we anticipate that it will be slight and temporary, but don't think it will be entirely avoidable, in Quebec or elsewhere.