The grey seal is a very intelligent animal. It's an opportunistic feeder that feeds on what is most available. It can certainly displace commercial fishermen, taking the food that we take out of the ocean, especially groundfish. We feel that this is taking place. We're seeing it in western Nova Scotia now.
You're right that at some point the animal starts to decline in health, weight, and also fertility. That hasn't happened yet. I understand from the scientists that the grey seal is doing very well.
The DFO scientists are experimenting with a lipid analysis, in which they take a piece of blubber from some of the seals around Sable Island and analyze it to see what DNA traces there are in the food. They're finding that the seals around Sable Island are concentrating on redfish and sand lance now. It's no surprise to me, because the cod is pretty well gone off Sable Island Bank, Western Bank, and so on. Anybody familiar with fishing in those areas can tell you that you can't find them any more. So it's not surprising that you don't see much cod in the lipid analysis.
I understand that in Iceland, where they have lots of cod, they find about 25% in their seals.
Also, fishermen in Cape Breton and other areas report that they find grey seals following their lobster fishing boats, the same way that seagulls do. Only lobsters too small to meet the measure are being thrown back.
There's no doubt in our mind that the grey seal is opportunistic, and there's still lots more to eat. But will there be any commercial fishing business left after they're done?
Eventually they will hit the wall, and a disease will set in. Then maybe they will collapse.