To answer your first question, my level of confidence in believing that sea lice are a problem for wild salmon comes from working on this issue for eight years. I spend about half my time in the field catching fish, counting sea lice, and doing experiments on the effects of sea lice on juvenile salmon behaviour and survival. I spend the other half of my time analyzing those data and working with mathematical models that tell us the implications of what we're learning.
During that time, I also read the literature. The convergence of evidence would be one where sea lice are a contributing factor to a decline of the wild salmon populations. As for where my colleagues differ, I think the main argument is that they're not the only factor. I would agree with that as well. Numerous factors affect salmon populations. Some of them we've known about for a long time.
I would say that sea lice are a new factor, and that does contribute to the productivity of wild salmon populations. What we've learned from the European experience and in British Columbia is that they can be a major factor affecting salmon populations. It takes time in the scientific community to look at new results like this and time for independent people to do their own work and reach consensus. We're in that stage where these are pretty new results, especially in British Columbia.
But the overwhelming weight of evidence from my assessment, from the literature and from the work that I've done, is that sea lice from salmon farms are a major problem for wild salmon populations. It's not only my work; a lot of other people have arrived at the same conclusions. But it's also a problem that is amendable to management change and management solutions.
The second question is about tolerance of sea lice to Slice. The first possible indications that this is happening in British Columbia come from Nootka Sound, from this winter, where there was a failure of treatment on one or more farms in that area where treatment with the chemical was made. The subsequent decline that we usually see in the sea lice populations on the farms was only small, and the sea lice populations rebounded very quickly after that. Those are the telltale signs of resistance to a chemical.
However, this is all anecdotal, and neither I nor anyone else has done the work with those lice from that area to determine whether or not tolerance has evolved.
Let's move to the next question. That work is being done by the centre for aquatic animal health, based in Campbell River, and I believe they're working not with the sea lice from Nootka Sound but with sea lice from other areas. The way they do it is to expose the sea lice to different concentrations of the chemical, and they determine the concentration that causes 50% mortality in the lice. That's called an LD50, and they look to see how that concentration at the LD50changes. As the lice evolve resistance, it takes more and more Slice to kill them.
Do I have time to address the final question about the management solutions?