We are developing models to identify, by creating a kind of criminal profile, if you like, of a species that could cause harm or undesirable impacts. We're not the only ones doing this. This is something that's going on around the world.
Even if we're not aware of what species might show up next, ultimately we might have a screen that allows us to identify which species coming in poses the biggest risk, based on this profile. This is an essential form of risk assessment, so it's through risk assessment when properly applied that you can identify threats, even before they've shown themselves to be a threat, in which case it's easier to prioritize to keep them out, or once established, easier to decide if we're going to invest resources to have to eradicate them.
We can't keep everything out. We can't stop everything, nor do we have to. What we have to do is identify where the biggest risks are. What is likely to cause the most damage? Through risk assessment—and the leaders of that are in Australia and New Zealand—which is part of the priority of CAISN, we can develop methods that when applied on the ground can allow us to foresee not only the next threat, but maybe even the next vector that's going to bring it in, or what emerging vectors also will bring in multiple threats.
One way I did this years ago—it was a simple method actually, at the time; now we're becoming more sophisticated—was to identify trends, based on invasion history, and then extrapolate from them.
Most of the species that are introduced in the Great Lakes come from Europe. That reflects opportunities created by trade traffic, primarily. We can see what's invading Europe now. We know that ballast water released from overseas shipping has been historically the most important vector for invasion in the Great Lakes, at least until 2008, and we can assume it will continue to act as such. Therefore what species are colonizing ports, like Rotterdam, Hamburg, and so on, from which we receive shipping traffic and thus pose a risk of coming here?
We have done this. When I did this, I identified about two dozen species that are considered to be high impact where they're invading across Europe, that will likely survive transport in ballast water, and that are in those ports and therefore likely interfacing with ballast water traffic.
This is a big roulette wheel spin. Just because they're there and just because they may be taken up by ships doesn't mean that they're actually going to establish. They may need multiple tries. It's a roll of the dice, but we're loading the dice in their favour in many cases.
I did that years ago, and one of those species has actually arrived, and that is the last species we know of that arrived through ballast water shipping. That was the bloody red mysid shrimp, which you'll hear more about in the future. That one was identified in 2006.