Thank you, Dave.
Thank you, members of the committee, for being here. We greatly appreciate this.
Dave has outlined the presentation for you, so I suggest that you turn to page 3 in your deck. The map there shows the major shrimp fishing areas off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, going from northern Labrador all the way to the northern Grand Banks. Although these stocks are genetically not differentiated, they are functionally workable management units that are self-sustaining, and therefore they have internal consistencies in terms of biological characteristics, such as the age and size distribution of the animals within them.
Some exchange does take place in the movement of larvae along the Labrador current, but these areas are self-sustaining.
Three of these areas are assessed through the Canadian science advisory secretariat of DFO, and the southernmost stock in 3L is assessed through NAFO. The purple dots on the graph show the position where, in 2013, most of the fishing activity took place, in water depths of between 150 and 600 metres.
Slide 4 shows the trends in fishable biomass for the four major management units. The stock represented by the purple line, in shrimp fishing area 6, is much more abundant than the others are. That area is off southern Labrador and northern Newfoundland. The other stocks have much lower overall average biomasses.
In the northernmost area—shrimp fishing area 4—the fishable biomass index has basically been on the increase over the last few years, but in 2013, it declined by 21%. This stock is still considered to be in the healthy zone with respect to the precautionary approach framework. In the area off central Labrador—fishing area 5—the fishable biomass index declined substantially, by 48%, in 2013. The stock is still in the healthy zone, but the decline is a cause for concern.
Looking at the next slide, you will see that the most important stock is the one in fishing area 6, which is off southern Labrador and northern Newfoundland. The general trend since 2006 has seen a decline in the fishable biomass for this stock. This trend seems to be continuing, despite some variation. In 2013, the stock declined by 33% from the previous year, and is at the lowest level in the time series. The stock is considered to be in the cautious zone of the PA framework.
Finally, the stock in fishing area 7, which corresponds to the northern Grand Banks and which is represented here by the blue line, was not assessed in 2013, although an update will be provided in the fall of 2014. At the last assessment, the fishable biomass index for this stock had decreased by 48% in 2012. This stock has been in decline since 2007 and is now at the biological limit reference point set by NAFO. It's considered to be in the critical zone. The scientific council of NAFO recommended that no directed fishing occur in this fishing area in 2013, but the fishery commission did not follow that advice.
The next slide shows the distribution of observations that are used to provide an indication of the state of the ocean off Newfoundland. This is for one particular year; however, basically this has been recurring every year. The surveys in the region consist of a series of oceanographic monitoring surveys that are carried out in the spring, summer, and fall. On those surveys, information concerning the physical, chemical, and biological oceanographic conditions of the region are collected. Ecosystem trawl surveys are also carried out in the spring and fall. Those are represented by the white and black dots.
Last year, in 2013, more than 1,100 trawl sets were carried out over 233 vessel days. These ecosystem surveys provide indices of abundance for commercial and non-commercial fish stocks, as well as other elements of the ecosystem. They also provide information on the state of the environment, because all our trawls are equipped with environmental sensors that provide us with measures of temperature and salinity.
Taking a look at the next slide, the environmental conditions off Newfoundland are assessed by collecting information from a large number of variables. They include information on atmospheric variables, such as precipitation and air temperature; the extent and volume of sea ice; the temperature of the ocean at various levels in the water column; the volume of cold water associated with the core of the Labrador current in the CIL; and also ocean salinity.
These indices are collected at a number of different locations along the coast to give us a sensation, or an impression, of the variability in conditions throughout the region to determine whether the ecosystem, or the physical environment, is responding uniformly or if there are variations depending on which portion of the region you find yourself in. Each one of those time series is expressed in terms of anomalies relative to the average conditions over the 1981 to 2010 period. It's a fairly standard way of standardizing the information from different environmental time series. It's carried out by other agencies as well. These anomalies we sum to give us a composite view of the ocean climate in the region. We get a sense of all the variations, and they give us an impression of whether we're in a warm phase or a cold phase.
The composite index is represented by the yellow dots and the line joining them, but the elements associated with each colour give you a sense of how much variability there is associated with each type of variable that's being included in the index. What you can see from this graph is that since the mid-1990s we've been in a warm phase, and the warmest phase on record since records have been kept in the region. It's also been one of the periods when there's been the least amount of interannual variability. Not only that, but in comparison with other warm periods that have occurred during that century, there are very few anomalies below the normal in any one of the variables.
So the system has responded very much as a whole. We've seen a very consistent change in the region, and it's a very significant change. We expect that trend will continue on for the next decade to decade-and-a-half that we will be in a warm phase, because the ocean environment is determined to a large extent by long-term cycles in atmospheric forcing. This is on top of the changes that are occurring because of climate change. These are significant changes.
Moving to the next slide, the exploitable biomass of snow crab is shown in the top panel. There are three major fishing areas for snow crab off Newfoundland: one on the east coast, one on the south coast, and one on the west coast. By far the more important resource is located on the east coast, where the fishable biomass is considerably higher than in the other areas.
Both trap and trawl surveys have indicated that the exploitable biomass has basically changed relatively little since the mid-2000s. However, the bulk of the biomass seems to be moving into the area of the Grand Banks, or the increase in population on the Grand Banks has been more notable. The areas in 2J and 3K have seen declines, as have areas on the south coast, in 3Ps.
The pre-recruitment biomass index gives you a sense of the biomass that will enter the fishery in the future. In all cases, the indices have been in decline since 2009 and will continue to decline for the next two or three years. We can say this based on the relationship between the survival of young crab, or the productivity of the stock, and the amount of cold water on the continental shelf. The more cold water there is, the better the environment is for crab; the warmer the waters, the worse off the environment is for crab.
Turning to slide 9, you can see, in the top graph, the northern cod spawning stock biomass index relative to the limit reference point, below which the stock is believed to be below a critical level for productivity. Although there's been some significant improvement in the last few years and the stock appears to be on the rebound, its levels are still 82% below the limit reference point.
There are some very positive signs, however. We've seen improved survival; expanding age structures, which means there's more older fish and also younger fish; more cod in the offshore areas; and more cod in the north.
There is a sign of rebuilding there, and it's an encouraging one.
The recruitment levels have also been at the best levels since the onset of the moratorium in the early 1990s. However, the recruitment levels are far below the recruitment levels that you can see in the 1980s. Based on this, we expect that the recruitment levels will not contribute significantly to the stock growth in the next few years. They will have an impact but it will not be very substantial. So the outlook is for the stock to remain in the critical zone for the next one to three years.
The effect of environmental change on the animals that we're working on is very different, depending on which species you're looking at.
In the case of snow crab, warm conditions negatively impact on the young crab and therefore affect recruitment in a negative sense. The more warm water there is, the poorer the recruitment in crab.
In the case of northern shrimp, the relationship with environmental temperatures is much less clear. However, there appears to be a very strong relationship with the timing of the onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom. These are lower trophic levels that basically form the base of the food web. We find that if the spring phytoplankton bloom is late, there will be good recruitment in shrimp, whereas if the spring phytoplankton bloom is early there will be poor recruitment in shrimp. There are multiple factors that determine the timing of the onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom. Temperature is one of the factors, but the melt of sea ice and the presence of sea ice are also factors there, and the interannual variabilities among these variables are not necessarily straight forward.
In the case of cod, warmer temperatures will likely improve the conditions for growth and recruitment for the stock. However, other factors, namely the abundance of their primary prey, which is capelin, also need to be favourable for the stock to achieve optimum growth and productivity. We can expect to see increased occurrence of warm summer conditions. Because of that, we're going to see more of the migratory species occur in the region over time, because these animals generally are associated with warm waters and migrate and follow isotherms.
In the case of capelin, we don't have a direct mechanism that links it to environmental variability yet, in terms of productivity of the stock. However, warming conditions are likely to result in good recruitment through earlier spawning times and a better condition of the fish. We can expect that better conditioned fish will produce more eggs, and the timing of spawning releases larvae into the environment at a more appropriate time relative to their life cycle.
If we look at a way forward, DFO will maintain its monitoring programs in terms of its oceanographic and ecosystem surveys of the region. There are also annual shrimp surveys that are done in collaboration with industry, as well as a post-season snow crab trap survey, which is an important index in our region, which is also done in collaboration with industry.
We will complete these assessments as scheduled and we will have a new assessment for northern shrimp on the Grand Banks in September of this year. We'll also see assessments for snow crab and northern shrimp in areas 4 through 6 being carried out next spring. A full assessment of the northern cod stock will be carried out in March 2016. There will probably be an update in 2015.
We're also working on scenarios of possible fluctuations in these key resources in support of economic analysis and for discussion with industry in upcoming consultations. We will, of course, provide advice on the application of the precautionary approach to these resources under our changing oceanographic regime.
In summary, I hope I've given you some evidence that there are some substantial changes taking place on the Newfoundland shelf and on the Grand Banks. We've seen warming oceanographic conditions, the shellfish stocks are in decline, both crab and shrimp. There are some positive signs in the case of northern cod, but the productivity of that stock still remains low. We have no explanation for that right now.
There are a few stocks, such as redfish and yellowtail, that appear to have increased in abundance and rebounded from their very low levels. However, key stocks such as capelin and American plaice are still at low levels
We have a very different ecosystem than the one that was there in the 1960s and 1970s, and that has profound repercussions for what we can expect out of that system.
We will, of course, provide you with further updates on scientific findings as they come up.
Thank you very much.
