The reference point at the moment is around 900,000 metric tonnes of spawning biomass and the stock at the moment is at 300,000. So we're about a third of the way toward the reference point. When we reach that reference point, the way the precautionary approach works is it's not a trigger to instantly have a full-scale commercial fishery; it means you can begin to exploit the stock, and if it continues to grow, you can increase your harvest gradually as it moves up through the cautious zone. That's how it works.
When do we think we will get there? It's very difficult to say. We were asked in the assessment to project our results forward for five years, and we considered this request very carefully. We decided that we're not at the point where we can predict five years in advance where the stock will be, but we felt we could give some information as to where the stock might be in three years. But again, as you move forward in time, the uncertainty increases and increases just like the weather forecast. You know what it's going to be tomorrow, but you're not so sure about the day after. So it gets more uncertain as you move out.
We reckoned that if the current productivity conditions of the stock persisted the way they are today, after three years we'd be about two-thirds of the way up to the limit reference point. But beyond that, we would not like to say. We felt the results were just too uncertain to formulate any kind of scientific advice that we could pass on.
As I mentioned, that's contingent on the current productivity of the stock staying the way it is, and as we know, the ocean can be a very variable place. This is not a prediction of what will happen in the future; it's more a projection. It's a look at what could happen if things stay pretty much the same as we've seen for the last few years.