Fisheries Committee on Sept. 21st, 2016

[Fin Donnelly, NDP, Port Moody—Coquitlam, BC]

When do you expect that to be public?

[Philippe Morel]

I don't have an exact date, but certainly a few weeks prior to the opening of the season.

[Fin Donnelly, NDP, Port Moody—Coquitlam, BC]

In the remaining time, Dr. Brattey, regarding this chart on the latest assessment results, could you talk about how you get to the limit reference point? With it fluctuating so much over years, how do you determine where the cautious and critical zones are?

[John Brattey]

The key measure you're looking for is where this stock shows evidence of having suffered serious harm. To look for the evidence of serious harm, we looked at things like the age structure of the population and where the large fish are disappearing. We looked at how effective the population was at producing recruitment, and we found that after the 1980s, both of those things plummeted and the population of cod was not able to produce good recruitment after it got below the levels we saw in the 1980s.

We had evidence of harm, and that's why we set the limit reference point as being the average spawning biomass of the 1980s. That point could be revised if we get more information, because the stock went down so quickly we have few data points between the limit reference point and down near zero.

If we get more information of when the stock is at an intermediate level, then that shows us that the stock can be productive. Then we would be advised to revisit the reference point issue, but at the moment we don't see that yet.

[The Chair, Liberal, Scott Simms]

Sorry, Mr. Donnelly.

I may have some news for you because we do have time. We're going to run a little bit tight, but what I propose, if I can get the unanimous consent of everybody, is that we return to the top of the board. Instead of doing seven minutes, let's do five minutes each, so you'll get a chance to finish that thought.

Is everybody okay with that? We're going to run a little bit tight, so I'm going to be a little more strict about that five minutes, given that we have business to do at 5:15.

Mr. McDonald and Mr. Finnigan, are you going to split your time?

[Pat Finnigan, Liberal, Miramichi—Grand Lake, NB]

Yes, we can split our time.

[The Chair, Liberal, Scott Simms]

Go ahead, Mr. McDonald.

[Ken McDonald, Liberal, Avalon, NL]

I noted that the common theme within the 2016 stock assessment is uncertainty. Why do you think there are so many gaps in the data and other information we have in regard to the current state of the stock, and what resources will the department require to fill those gaps?

[John Brattey]

Uncertainty is a word that you see used quite often in the assessment documents. As I mentioned in my presentation, we have a new assessment model, and one of the key things we have to address in a far better way than anything we've had in the past is the issue of uncertainty.

I can give you an example. In the past, we had to assume things. We didn't have enough information back before the moratorium on cod to say what the level of natural mortality was. In the models at that time, you had to put in an assumed value, so we put in a fixed value of 0.2. There was no measure of uncertainty around that at all. If we got that wrong, that could have a big impact on the assessment. Now we have a way to include uncertainty around estimates of natural mortality.

We also had to assume that the catch information that we provided was without error, that the number of tonnes of cod that we were told were removed was exact, and that it wasn't an underestimate. Those were the numbers that we had to use in assessment models back in the 1980s.

This model we have now doesn't require an exact measure of catch as one of its inputs. It requires what we call bounds in the catch. We need a lower and an upper bound, within which we will capture what the true catch was, including things we don't know much about like discarding, unreported fishing, and any of these issues that could be going on. We put in bounds, and the model will figure out where the catch—the most likely total catch—was within those bounds. It just gives it a constraint.

This issue of uncertainty is addressed much more rigorously in this new assessment model we have, which was custom written specifically for northern cod.

[Pat Finnigan, Liberal, Miramichi—Grand Lake, NB]

If the theory is true that warmer water is part of the reason the fish are moving north—it looks as though we're losing the southern waters from Cape Cod up—what other species are we seeing increase? We should see some species that weren't here before that are now moving north.

I know the salmon has the same issue. The salmon is now apparently into Labrador and some of the northern waters, but we should see the species that were traditionally southern species move north. Would you say that's fair?

[John Brattey]

We are seeing some things. We're not seeing as much rebuilding in some of the other groundfish resources within the northern cod stock area as we are with the cod. Things like American plaice within that area are improving, but they're not rebuilding quite as quickly as cod did. They're also a slower growing species, so perhaps that's not surprising.

Some of the other things we're seeing are more sharks and more tuna in the waters around Newfoundland, and these are particularly warm water species. This summer alone we're hearing—and I'm sure you've heard—numerous reports of recreational fishers tangling with sharks when they're pulling their cod up to the surface.

There are some warm water species that are improving, coincident with this warming, but there are also some that we're a little surprised are not doing better than they are. It's a complex picture.

[Pat Finnigan, Liberal, Miramichi—Grand Lake, NB]

It gives more meaning to the film JAWS. I guess we should be concerned that it might come to our shores.

That's all I have. Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Scott Simms]

Thank you very much.

Mr. Doherty, you have five minutes.

[Todd Doherty, Conservative, Cariboo—Prince George, BC]

I want to say thank you to our guests today for their report. I found it very informative.

I have a question regarding capelin. When was the last capelin assessment completed?

[John Brattey]

I believe the last capelin assessment was in 2014. I stand to be corrected, but it might be done every second year.

[Todd Doherty, Conservative, Cariboo—Prince George, BC]

Earlier in your testimony, you mentioned that some numbers are showing that there might be a decline in the capelin. Do you know the factors around that, or are there thoughts about that?

[John Brattey]

No, we don't know. Quite frankly, it's very difficult to say, as we mentioned. Small pelagic fish can be boom or bust; they can go up and down very quickly, in short timeframes. When they do go down, we're obviously concerned and we're looking very carefully and hoping the situation doesn't persist.

[Todd Doherty, Conservative, Cariboo—Prince George, BC]

Also, my colleague mentioned seal predation. Is capelin part of the diet of seal as well?

[John Brattey]

It is very much so.

[Todd Doherty, Conservative, Cariboo—Prince George, BC]

So while we might not see seal predation on our cod as having an impact, seal predation on our cod's preferred diet could definitely have an impact on our numbers.

[John Brattey]

Yes, possibly it could. I can't recall any detailed studies in which they have looked at the impact of seal predation on capelin. Everything feeds on capelin. This is the challenge: to figure out which of its many predators are having the biggest impact on it. All the whales eat them too, and all the seabirds.

[Todd Doherty, Conservative, Cariboo—Prince George, BC]

Would it be your assessment, then, today that we could be looking at a drop in our numbers of northern cod for next year or the next reporting period?

[John Brattey]

The potential is certainly there with capelin having gone down. One year is not so much of an issue, but if they stay low for a couple of years, then you would expect to see some impact.

If you look at our graphs, you can see how the increase in northern cod is not linear upwards from 2005. It goes up a little bit and then it rather plateaus. In 2010, we saw quite a dip in capelin, and it seemed to be reflected in the cod numbers as well. Then the capelin improved, and so did cod.

We'll certainly be looking at capelin very carefully in the next short period.

[Todd Doherty, Conservative, Cariboo—Prince George, BC]

Great. That's all I have.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Scott Simms]

Mr. Donnelly, take five minutes, please.