I have a couple.
There's a general rule in fisheries stock assessment, population dynamics, and so on that you cannot know the optimal size of a stock until you overfish it. Letting a stock grow to its largest size tells you nothing about the optimal productivity of that stock. That's a mathematical kind of thing.
Over the past couple of years, I've been working on two of the cod stocks, the northern cod in 2J3KL and the southern gulf. The southern gulf stock is about to be extirpated. No marine protected area is going to help it because it probably is the seals. The stock is so low that even a small amount of predation by seals is enough. That seal population has gone from about 9,000 in the 1970s to in the hundreds of thousands now. It's a completely different ecosystem in there.
The northern cod, it turns out.... A year ago DFO put together a competing stock assessment type of meeting where two people, Noel Cadigan and I, both developed independent stock assessments for northern cod. One of the things that came up—DFO scientists at the time thought it was going on but nobody really believed it—was that there was an increase in natural mortality just prior to the collapse. Both of these models are showing this. It's the same thing that we see in the southern gulf, high natural mortality. It's a different type. It's a high, persistent, natural mortality in the southern gulf, but it was some sort of mortality event in northern cod.
Then there was another event in the late 1990s soon after the moratorium. There was another one of these relatively high natural mortality events. That could have been one of the things that prevented recovery following the closure.
The issue here is that we have a really hard time predicting anything about nature. That's one of the arguments in favour of MPAs. If you can't predict anything, then just close it, which is fine if that's what you want to do. Some of the predictions of what MPAs are going to do and how they're going to benefit, I think, are not quite as robust as they could be.